Morphological Scenario Analysis
in Three Easy Steps
Morphological Scenario Analysis (MSA) is a method for constructing future scenarios in complex environments. MSA helps create scenarios that are internally consistent and diverse as a set. It consists of three steps:
1 Define a Morphological Field
Identify the key developments that impact your organization. For each development, define alternative outcomes.
2 Mark pairs of inconsistent outcomes
Some outcomes cannot logically co-exist. Identify these inconsistencies across the field to exclude them from your analysis.
3 Create multiple scenarios
Construct scenarios by selecting a consistent set of possible outcomes for each key development.
About Scenario Planning
Scenario Planning is the systematical exploration of the long term future of your organization. Scenario Planning focuses on uncertain developments and brings them to the center of your analysis, by defining alternative outcomes to current developments: future scenarios.